Aya Gold and Silver

The Company

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. ("Aya" or the "Corporation") has firmly established itself as a premier mid-tier silver producer, distinguishing itself from its peers through a unique combination of high-grade asset quality, disciplined operational execution, and a strategic foothold in the Kingdom of Morocco—a jurisdiction increasingly recognized for its geological prospectivity and stable mining code. As of early 2026, the Corporation stands at a critical inflection point. Having successfully commissioned the expansion of its flagship Zgounder Silver Mine and delivered a transformative Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for the Boumadine Polymetallic Project.

The investment thesis for Aya is predicated on three fundamental pillars that suggest a significant re-rating potential relative to its North American and Latin American peers. First, the Zgounder Silver Mine has transitioned from a development project into a robust cash-flow engine. The successful ramp-up of the new 2,000 tonnes per day (tpd) mill, combined with legacy infrastructure, has elevated processing capacity to over 3,000 tpd, positioning the asset to produce an average of 6 million ounces (Moz) of silver annually through 2036. This production profile is supported by an updated Mineral Reserve estimate of 73.4 million ounces, underpinning an extended 11-year mine life that provides long-term visibility on cash generation.   

Second, the Boumadine Project has emerged as a Tier-1 development asset with district-scale potential. The PEA filed in December 2025 outlines a project with an after-tax Net Present Value (NPV) at a 5% discount rate ranging from $1.5 billion in the Base Case to $3.0 billion at spot prices, alongside an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 47% to 77%. The scale of Boumadine, with its massive sulfide lenses and polymetallic endowment, offers Aya a diversification vector into gold, zinc, and lead while maintaining substantial silver leverage. The low capital intensity implied by the PEA—with an initial capital expenditure (Capex) of $446 million yielding a 3.3x NPV-to-Capex ratio—demonstrates exceptional capital efficiency in an inflationary industry environment.   

Third, the Corporate Platform and Financial Health of the organization provide a distinct competitive advantage. Following a record-breaking third quarter in 2025, where revenue surged fivefold to $54.3 million and net income reached $12.4 million, Aya boasts a pristine balance sheet with approximately $129 million in cash and cash equivalents. This liquidity profile allows the Corporation to self-fund aggressive exploration programs—totalling over 140,000 meters annually—without diluting shareholder equity. Furthermore, the strategic spin-out of non-core gold assets into Mx2 Mining has clarified the investment proposition, leaving Aya as the only pure-play silver producer on the TSX while retaining significant equity upside in the new gold-focused vehicle.   

However, investors must weigh these strengths against inherent risks. The Corporation’s heavy reliance on the silver price introduces volatility, and while Morocco is a stable jurisdiction, regional geopolitical dynamics in North Africa require constant monitoring. Additionally, the transition to steady-state operations at Zgounder involves managing higher initial cash costs during the ramp-up phase, as evidenced by the $20.79/oz cash cost reported in Q3 2025.   

In conclusion, Aya Gold & Silver represents a compelling growth vehicle in the precious metals sector. The convergence of operational maturity at Zgounder and the crystallization of value at Boumadine position the stock to outperform its peer group as it closes the valuation gap between a junior developer and an established mid-tier producer.

Aya’s financial transition is evident in its Q3 2025 results. The Corporation has moved from consuming cash to generating it, a trend that will accelerate in 2026.

8.1. Q3 2025 Performance Review

Revenue: $54.3 million, a five-fold increase year-over-year. This was driven by higher sales volumes (1.36 Moz sold) and a realized silver price of $39.85/oz.   

Gross Margin: Significant margin expansion was realized, with revenue far outstripping the cost of sales ($33.0 million).

Net Income: Record net income of $12.4 million ($0.09 per share), a stark turnaround from the losses incurred during the construction phase.   

Cash Flow: Operating cash flow reached $22.4 million for the quarter ($38.1 million YTD).

8.2. Balance Sheet and Liquidity

Aya’s balance sheet is a fortress.

Cash Position: $129.2 million (as of Sept 30, 2025).

Working Capital: $96.1 million.

Liquidity: Including the undrawn $25 million credit facility, total available liquidity exceeds $150 million.   

Implication: This liquidity implies that Aya is fully funded. The projected capital requirements for Boumadine’s Feasibility Study and early works, as well as the exploration budget, can likely be met through internal cash flow and existing cash reserves. This removes the "equity overhang" risk often associated with developers needing to raise capital.